Europa Conf. League, played Thursday, July 27th, 2023
Here is our Linfield v Pogon Szczecin tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to not score in this game, under 2.5 goals, and a Pogon Szczecin away win. Our confidence in this tip was moderate relative to other tips.
Following their experiences in the previous 1st Qualifying Round of this season's UEFA Conference League, Irish hosts, Linfield, will be keen to make home advantage count once again on Thursday night when they take on Polish Ekstraklasa side, Pogon Szczecin, at their Windsor Park ground in this 1st leg tie.
Linfield registered a convincing 3-1 home win over Albanian club, Vllaznia Shkoder, in the 1st leg at Windsor Park but the Irish club had to hang on for dear life in the return leg at Stadiumi Loro Boriçi in the return leg in Albania, losing 1-0 but going through with a 3-2 win on aggregate.
However, the bigger picture has produced encouraging results for manager, David Healy and his Linfield side as they have lost just three out of their last 18 matches overall, two of which were in club friendlies, while also picking up 11 wins as well.
Goals may be in short supply though as 13 of Linfield's last 18 games in all competitions have resulted in Under 2.5 goals and another tight encounter is expected in Thursday night's 1st leg tie.
Pogon Szczecin started their domestic Ekstraklasa campaign in promising fashion as they registered a 1-0 win away from home at Warta Poznan in their opening game of the season and the visitors will no doubt be looking for more of the same when they travel to Belfast on Thursday night.
The Polish visitors have also enjoyed a sustained period of consistent looking results overall as they have suffered just the two defeats within their last 16 matches, the losses being against Gornik Zabrze in last season's Ekstraklasa and a club friendly loss to Hansa Rostock.
Otherwise, it's been pretty positive reading for Pogon Szczecin's fans as they've also collected 11 wins during this period but again, goals may be a scarce commodity in this upcoming 1st leg at Windsor Park as seven of Pogon Szczecin's last 10 away matches have also resulted in Under 2.5 goals and the visitors are hardly likely to be in attacking mode on the road in this opening encounter.
Linfield v Pogon Szczecin Verdict
Both Linfield and Pogon Szczecin have produced fairly solid sequences of results lately but both teams have been involved in low-scoring encounters both at home and away - indeed, 13 of Linfield's last 18 home games resulting in Under 2.5 goals scored (72.2%) suggests this upcoming 1st leg could be a war of attrition.
In addition, four of Pogon Szczecin's last six ties in the Conference League have also produced two goals or less so the prospects for a high-scoring encounter at Windsor Park look fairly slim here.
Therefore, our main bet will be Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85
Other side bets worth considering:
Pogon Szczecin win @ 1.75
Correct score: Pogon Szczecin 1-0 @ 7.00
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| A | Vllaznia | 1-0 |
| H | Vllaznia | 3-1 |
| A | Cliftonville | 0-2 |
| A | Larne | 1-1 |
| A | Coleraine | 0-1 |
| A | Warta Poznan | 0-1 |
| H | Radomiak Radom | 4-0 |
| A | Gornik Zabrze | 2-1 |
| H | Miedz Legnica | 3-2 |
| H | Legia Warsaw | 2-1 |