Copa Libertadores, played Wednesday, June 28th, 2023
Here is our Atletico Nacional v Patronato Parana tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to score in this game, over 2.5 goals, and a Atletico Nacional home win. Our confidence in this tip was moderate relative to other tips.
In Group H, Tuesday night's hosts, Atletico Nacional, have already secured their place in the knockout rounds of the Copa Libertadores as they sit in second place and hold an unassailable six-point cushion over third-placed Melgar, but with only one point separating them from the group leaders, Olimpia, all that remains now is to decide who comes out on top of the group.
Atletico Nacional will take on bottom of the group, Patronato, at their Estadio Atanasio Girardot in this final match of the group stage no doubt looking to make amends for their previous heavy 3-0 defeat away from home at Olimpia on Matchday 5, but the hosts will still feel confident about their chances here as they've recorded wins against Patronato (away) along with home and away wins against Melgar as well.
The bigger picture shows Atletico Nacional have won just three of their previous 12 games overall in the Copa Libertadores but goals have also featured in recent times as five of Atletico Nacional's last seven games have resulted in Over 2.5 goals.
Patronato sit bottom of Group H with just three points to their name after collecting just the one win to date in their previous five games which came in the form of a resounding 4-1 home win against Melgar but there has been little to cheer about otherwise for the Argentinian visitors in this competition to date.
Along with picking up just two wins from their previous nine games in all competitions, Patronato have also slumped to four defeats during the group stage of this season's Copa Libertadores, suffering losses against Atletico Nacional, home and away defeats to Olimpia and a heavy 5-0 defeat away from home at Melgar.
Goals also look likely to feature in Tuesday night's clash at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot as three of Patronato's five games to date in the group stage have resulted in Over 2.5 goals, while the bigger picture shows five of Patronato's last 10 matches in all competitions have also produced three goals or more.
Atletico Nacional v Patronato Verdict
Atletico Nacional have been priced at short odds favourites by the bookmakers as the hosts look to be well set to take all three points against a poor Patronato outfit who are participating in their first ever Copa Libertadores, but goals also look likely as Atletico Nacional's home games have generally been entertaining affairs.
Patronato meanwhile still stand a chance of claiming a third place finish in Group H as they trail Melgar by just a single point so the visitors are expected to be going all out for a win here and hope Melgar suffer a heavy defeat away at Olimpia, which there is every chance of this happening!
Therefore, our main bet will be Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85
Other side bets worth considering:
Atletico Nacional win & Over 2.5 goals @ 2.30
Correct score: Atletico Nacional 2-1 @ 8.50
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| A | Millonarios | 1-1 |
| H | Millonarios | 0-0 |
| H | Pasto | 3-2 |
| A | Alianza Petrolera | 0-0 |
| A | Olimpia | 3-0 |
| A | San Martin San Juan | 2-1 |
| H | Defensores Unidos | 1-0 |
| H | Almirante Brown | 0-1 |
| A | Guillermo Brown | 0-0 |
| A | Melgar | 5-0 |