Copa do Brasil, played Wednesday, July 5th, 2023
Here is our Sao Paulo v Palmeiras tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to not score in this game, under 2.5 goals, and a Sao Paulo home win. Our confidence in this tip was low relative to other tips.
We have reached the quarter-final stage of the Brazilian domestic cup competition (Copa do Brasil) and the 1st leg fixtures features this upcoming clash between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras when the two sides meet at Morumbi Stadium, both looking for an edge to take into the 2nd leg next week.
Sao Paulo will be seeking to make it three wins on the trot in all competitions on Wednesday night after recording a 2-0 victory over Tigre in the Copa Sudamericana and was followed by a 1-0 win at home against Fluminense in the Brazilian Serie A, so the hosts will head into this 1st leg cup-tie in confident mood.
Recent results overall have also been encouraging for Sao Paulo as they have racked up nine wins in their last 12 matches in all competitions and although they have been handed three defeats as well within this period, two of these losses were incurred away from home.
Sao Paulo have reached the quarter-final stage in this season's Copa do Brasil after beating Ituano 1-0 on aggregate and winning a penalty shoot-out against Serie B side, Sport Recife, in the previous round, with three of their four ties played to date resulting in Under 2.5 goals.
Palmeiras have produced some inconsistent results of late as the visitors have registered four wins out of their last nine matches in all competitions with victories against Coritiba, Barcelona CP, Sao Paulo (away in Serie A) and Bolivar, although it is worth noting that three of these four wins were achieved on home soil at Allianz Parque.
Palmeiras have also slipped to three defeats as well within this nine-match period, falling to losses against Fortaleza, Bahia and Botafogo and having lost two of these three on their travels, this upcoming trip to Morumbi Stadium to take on Sao Paulo could be a tough assignment for Abel Ferreira's side.
With just four wins out of their last 15 outings on the road in all competitions as well, the straight win market should be avoided (for both teams) as this is a cup-tie and the goals market looks a safer option in this fixture.
Sao Paulo v Palmeiras Verdict
Sao Paulo have lost just once in the previous five meetings with Palmeiras which happened to be in the last clash which they lost 2-0 but Sao Paulo have also picked up two wins in the process as well.
Seven of Palmeiras' last 10 away games in all competitions have resulted in Under 2.5 goals and goals could be in short supply once again on Wednesday night.
Indeed, four of the previous five meetings between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras have also resulted in Under 2.5 goals too.
Therefore, our main bet will be Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70
Other side bets worth considering:
Sao Paulo win @ 2.80
Correct score: Sao Paulo 1-0 @ 8.00
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| H | Fluminense | 1-0 |
| H | Tigre | 2-0 |
| A | Cruzeiro | 1-0 |
| H | Atletico Paranaense | 2-1 |
| H | Palmeiras | 0-2 |
| A | Atletico Paranaense | 2-2 |
| H | Bolivar | 4-0 |
| H | Botafogo | 0-1 |
| A | Bahia | 1-0 |
| A | Sao Paulo | 0-2 |