Group B, played Tuesday, November 29th, 2022
Here is our Wales v England tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to not score in this game, under 2.5 goals, and a England away win. Our confidence in this pick was low relative to other picks.
England sit on 4 points in Group B, but their performance against the USA was pretty dismal. They either played for the draw in that game, or were just lacking creativity and energy, which will be a big worry for Gareth Southgate. You would have thought that they wouldn't want to come into this game with Wales needing a result, but England will probably need at least a draw to qualify here.
If Iran and USA draw then England will top this group on goal difference if they lose to Wales by less than 6 goals. If there's a winner in that Iran vs USA game then England may find themselves finishing 2nd in this group.
For Wales, this is a must-win game. A win would take them to 4 points, and then they would have to hope that the Iran vs USA game finishes in a draw.
Given those scenarios, Wales are likely to give everything they have to get a result here. England may well again play for the draw if this game is level going into the second half. For that reason we're not entirely confident in England here.
England players may have one eye on the knockout stages. Two yellow cards over this game and the last 16 game will lead to a quarter-final suspension, if England reach that stage of the competition. England remarkably haven't picked up a single booking over their two games so far. Players will also be fully aware of how tough this game might turn out, and avoiding injury is key going into the latter stages of the competition.
England looked tired in that 0-0 draw against Wales, so Gareth Southgate may shake things up with his team selection here. Added to this, Wales will be going full throttle to get a win, so England's line-up and structure may be more angled at cancelling Wales out in midfield here.
Many questions have been raised about why Phil Foden has not yet featured for England, so we expect him to start here in place of Buyako Saka, who could be rested ahead of the last 16 game. Jack Grealish may get the nod ahead of Raheem Sterling too.
Harry Maguire will surely start in the centre of defence given his strong performances in the last 2 games. Expect Southgate to stick with Stones in the centre too. Will England opt to rotate Kieran Trippier or Luke Shaw? They certainly have options in Trent Alexander-Arnold down the right.
Conor Gallagher or Kalvin Phillips may get the nod in midfield ahead of Mason Mount, who was poor against the USA.
Expect a few changes for England but at the same time Southgate to keep the core of the team together as England look to build confidence and unity if they're to progress from this group.
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| H | Iran | 0-2 |
| A | USA | 1-1 |
| H | Poland | 0-1 |
| A | Belgium | 2-1 |
| A | Netherlands | 3-2 |
| H | USA | 0-0 |
| H | Iran | 6-2 |
| H | Germany | 3-3 |
| A | Italy | 1-0 |
| H | Hungary | 0-4 |
