UEFA Nations, played Thursday, September 5th, 2024
Here is our Northern Ireland v Luxembourg tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to not score in this game, under 2.5 goals, and a Northern Ireland home win. Our confidence in this pick was moderate relative to other picks.
Northern Ireland will head into their opening game in Group 3 of League C against an improving Luxembourg outfit on the back of a 2-0 home win against Andorra in an international friendly back in mid-June, while Luxembourg have been handed back-to-back defeats against France and Belgium in tough international friendlies in early June, so both teams will be keen to produce a positive result here at Windsor Park on Thursday night.
Northern Ireland failed to qualify for the Euro 2024 finals as they finished fourth from bottom in their qualifying Group H and indeed the Irish narrowly avoided relegation from League C at the end of the last UEFA Nations League campaign as they finished third from bottom in Group 2 level on points with bottom nation Cyprus and only a slightly better goal difference saved them from the drop down to League D.
A repeat of a third place finish this time around would result in Northern Ireland having to play a promotion/relegation play-off but recent results for Michael O'Neill's side have been fairly encouraging as the hosts have picked up wins against the likes of Denmark, Scotland and Andorra in recent times.
However, goals may be at a premium for this upcoming clash as seven out of Northern Ireland's last 10 home games at Windsor Park have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.
Luxembourg finished runners-up behind the eventual winners of League C Group 1, Turkey, but the visitors found themselves just two points shy of Turkey and that promising UEFA Nations League campaign earned them a place in the play-offs for a spot in the Euro 2024 finals.
However, Georgia recorded a 2-0 home win against Luxembourg in the Euro 2024 qualifying play-off semi-final but nevertheless, this was testament to how far Luxembourg have come in recent years as they are now staging serious challenges for a spot in major tournaments.
Recent results have seen Luxembourg claim wins against the likes of Bosnia-Herzegovina twice, Iceland and Kazakhstan and although they suffered a 2-0 defeat to Turkey at home in the UEFA Nations League, they managed to hold the Turks to a 3-3 draw away from home in Istanbul in the return fixture.
However, there's still work to do with regards form away from home as Luxembourg have picked up just three wins on the road in their last 10 outings along with being dealt four defeats as well; goals may also be in short supply as six of Luxembourg's last 10 away games in all competitions have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.
Northern Ireland v Luxembourg Verdict
Northern Ireland have lost just once in the previous five meetings against Luxembourg but the visitors are closing the gap and this could result in a low-scoring affair.
Therefore, our main bet will be Under 2.5 goals @ 1.64
Other side bets worth considering:
N. Ireland win @ 2.06
Correct Score: N. Ireland win & Under 2.5 goals @ 4.00
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| H | Andorra | 2-0 |
| A | Spain | 5-1 |
| A | Scotland | 0-1 |
| A | Romania | 1-1 |
| H | Denmark | 2-0 |
| A | Belgium | 3-0 |
| A | France | 3-0 |
| H | Kazakhstan | 2-1 |
| A | Georgia | 2-0 |
| A | Liechtenstein | 0-1 |