Europa League, played Thursday, August 17th, 2023
Here is our HJK Helsinki v Qarabagh tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to score in this game, over 2.5 goals, and a Qarabagh away win. Our confidence in this pick was moderate relative to other picks.
HJK Helsinki find themselves chasing this 3rd Qualifying Round tie against Azerbaijan side, Qarabag, following last week's 2-1 defeat away at the Tofiq B?hramov adina Respublika stadionu, although the Finnish hosts now hold home advantage for this return leg on Thursday night.
Recent results overall have been pretty positive where HJK have been concerned despite losing twice within their last eight matches in all competitions, both of which were incurred on their travels anyway, while HJK have also picked up five wins during this period as well which will give them hope ahead of this 2nd leg tie.
HJK have already used one of their ‘European lives' as they stumbled to a 2-1 defeat to Norwegian side, Molde, in the early qualifying rounds of the Champions League but the hosts know they must win this return leg with Qarabag if they're to stand any chance of extending their European adventures this season in the Europa League.
Results on home soil have produced encouraging returns though for HJK as the hosts have lost just twice in their previous 16 home games in all competitions, while six of their last 10 home ties at Europa League level have also resulted in both teams scoring as well.
Qarabag know that they are just 90 minutes away from securing a place in the Play-Offs in this competition and as the visitors hold a 2-1 lead after last week's 1st leg win over their Finnish counterparts, Qarabag do not have to take any risks early on in this return leg.
Qarabag have now won their last two games on the trot overall, both of which were on home soil though with last week's 2-1 win against HJK along with a 3-0 home win against Turan in the domestic Premyer Liqa, but they too were dumped out of the Champions League at an early stage.
A 6-1 win on aggregate against Gibraltan outfit, Lincoln Red Imps, saw Qarabag progress through to the next qualifying round where they met Polish club Rakow Czestochowa, whom they narrowly lost 4-3 to, thus ending their Champions League dream.
The visitors therefore have another bite of the cherry in the Europa League and they know that HJK will attempt to throw everything at them in this 2nd leg, especially with home support behind them.
Qarabag have lost seven of their last 10 away ties in the Europa League so the straight win markets should be avoided but the visitors are capable of scoring in this return leg.
HJK Helsinki v Qarabag Verdict
It's a simple case of ‘win or bust' for HJK Helsinki ahead of this 2nd leg in which goals for both teams looks a likely outcome.
Therefore, our main bet will be Both Teams To Score Yes @ 1.72
Other side bets worth considering:
Qarabag win @ 2.20
Correct score Qarabag 2-1 @ 9.50
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| A | Qarabagh | 2-1 |
| H | IFK Mariehamn | 4-2 |
| A | Molde | 2-0 |
| A | SJK | 1-2 |
| H | Molde | 1-0 |
| H | Turan Tovuz | 3-0 |
| H | HJK Helsinki | 2-1 |
| H | Zira | 0-1 |
| H | Rakow Czestochowa | 1-1 |
| A | Rakow Czestochowa | 3-2 |