Europa League, played Thursday, April 11th, 2024
Here is our Benfica v Marseille tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to not score in this game, under 2.5 goals, and a Benfica home win. Our confidence in this pick was moderate relative to other picks.
Benfica lost out to Portuguese compatriots Sporting Lisbon in a 2-1 top of the table defeat in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on the weekend which ended a previously impressive looking six-game unbeaten run in all competitions while Marseille were handed a fourth defeat on the trot in all competitions following a heavy 3-1 loss away from home at Lille in Ligue 1.
Prior to their weekend defeat away at Sporting Lisbon, Benfica had strung together four wins in their preceding six games which included victories in the Portuguese top flight against Estoril, Casa Pia and Chaves respectively, along with a 1-0 win away from home against Rangers in Ibrox in the Round of last 16 in the Europa League.
The bigger picture shows Benfica have slipped to just three defeats out of their last 17 matches in all competitions and it's worth noting that all three of these losses were incurred on their travels at Sporting Lisbon (twice) and Porto, but the hosts have also accumulated 10 wins in the process as well.
Results on home soil though at their Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica have been particularly impressive as Benfica have been dealt just the one defeat in their previous 19 home games, picking up 13 wins.
Marseille find themselves stuck in a bit of a rut as the French visitors have lost their last four matches on the trot in all competitions which consist of domestic losses in Ligue 1 at the hands of Rennes, PSG and Lille respectively, along with a 3-1 loss away from home at Spanish side Villarreal in the Round of last 16 in the Europa League.
The French club had previously posted an excellent five-match winning streak beforehand which included wins in the Europa League against the likes of Shakhtar Donetsk and Villarreal (4-0 at home in the 1st leg of their previous Round of last 16 tie), but these five wins have been Marseille's only real highlights in their previous 16 games in all competitions.
However, victories on the road for Jean-Louis Gasset's side have been on an occasional basis rather than regular as the visitors have collected just four wins from their previous 22 outings on the road, slipping to 12 defeats in the process which does not bode well for this upcoming trip to the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to face hosts Benfica in this 1st leg tie.
In addition, Marseille have registered just two wins from their last 21 away ties in the Europa League as well.
Benfica v Marseille Verdict
Benfica's strong results on home soil should see the hosts across the line in this 1st leg home tie against a poor-travelling Marseille outfit.
Therefore, our main bet will be Benfica win @ 1.85
Other side bets worth considering:
Benfica win & Under 2.5 goals @ 4.75
Correct Score: Benfica 1-0 @ 8.50
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| A | Sporting Lisbon | 2-1 |
| H | Chaves | 1-0 |
| A | Casa Pia Atletico | 0-1 |
| A | Rangers | 0-1 |
| H | Estoril | 3-1 |
| A | Lille | 3-1 |
| H | PSG | 0-2 |
| A | Rennes | 2-0 |
| A | Villarreal | 3-1 |
| H | Nantes | 2-0 |