Championship, played Sunday, May 26th, 2024
Here is our Leeds v Southampton tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to not score in this game, under 2.5 goals, and a Leeds home win. Our confidence in this pick was low relative to other picks.
Termed ‘the richest game in football', the Championship play-off final will be played out at Wembley Stadium on Sunday afternoon as Leeds United and Southampton battle it out for a place in the Premier League for next season with Leeds United coming into this crucial clash on the back of a 4-0 win on aggregate against Norwich City, while Southampton recorded a 3-1 win on aggregate against West Brom in their play-off semi-final.
Leeds United finished the regular Championship season in third place and six points behind runners-up Ipswich Town but the Yorkshire club also finished three points above Southampton despite a worryingly poor sequence of results in the season run-in which saw Daniel Farke's side capture just one win in their last six games of the season.
That victory came in the form of a high-scoring 4-3 away win at the Riverside Stadium against Middlesbrough but four defeats within this six-game period cost Leeds United dearly and dashed any hopes they had of securing automatic promotion following defeats at the hands of Coventry City, Blackburn Rovers, QPR and Southampton - the latter being a particularly disappointing 2-1 loss at home to the south coast club.
Leeds United will therefore be desperate to avenge that recent defeat to The Saints here on Sunday afternoon at Wembley Stadium and having won 15 of their last 23 games overall, the Yorkshire club stand a decent chance in this one.
Southampton booked their place in this season's Championship play-off final thanks to a decisive 3-1 home win against West Brom in the 2nd leg of their semi-final play-off at St Mary's Stadium as Russell Martin's side seek a swift return to the Premier League at the first time of asking.
Prior to their play-off semi-final against The Baggies, Southampton had also experienced something of a wobble in the run-in to the end of the regular season in the Championship as the visitors had slipped to three defeats on the trot which saw the south coast club suffer losses at the hands of Cardiff City, Leicester City and Stoke City respectively but the visitors managed to bounce back in triumphant fashion by recording a 2-1 win away from home at Leeds United.
The bigger picture though shows Saints have registered just five wins out of their last 12 matches overall in the English second tier, four of which were achieved on home soil at their St Mary's Stadium with victories over Coventry City, Watford, Preston NE and West Brom, while also being dealt four defeats in the process as well.
Interestingly, three of these four defeats were handed to Saints on their travels as they slipped up at Ipswich Town, Cardiff City and Leicester City and this could be a factor in determining the outcome of this vital clash at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.
Leeds United v Southampton Verdict
This play-off final is expected to be a low-scoring affair with so much riding on it but Leeds United might just sneak a narrow win here to take them back to the promised land.
Therefore, our main bet will be Leeds United win @ 2.30
Other side bets worth considering:
Leeds United win & Under 2.5 goals @ 2.60
Correct Score: Leeds United 1-0 @ 8.50
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| H | Norwich | 4-0 |
| A | Norwich | 0-0 |
| H | Southampton | 1-2 |
| A | QPR | 4-0 |
| A | Middlesbrough | 3-4 |
| All ResultsHome Results | ||
| H | West Brom | 3-1 |
| A | West Brom | 0-0 |
| A | Leeds | 1-2 |
| H | Stoke | 0-1 |
| A | Leicester | 5-0 |
| All ResultsAway Results | ||