Champions League, played Tuesday, November 7th, 2023
Here is our AC Milan v PSG tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to score in this game, under 2.5 goals, and a tie. Our confidence in this pick was low relative to other picks.
This season's Champions League group stage has reached the midway point of the campaign and Matchday 4 features the other fixture in Group F between Italian Serie A side, AC Milan, and their French Ligue 1 visitors, PSG, in what is looking like a ‘must win' game for the hosts as they sit bottom of the Group F table with just two points to their name and two points adrift of both Borussia Dortmund and Newcastle United.
AC Milan suffered a third defeat in four games overall in all competitions on the weekend when they were dealt a disappointing 1-0 loss at home by Udinese in Serie A and this result followed previous losses to Juventus in Serie A and a heavy 3-0 defeat away from home at PSG in the Champions League as well.
The Italian hosts therefore look to be up against it ahead of this Matchday 4 encounter against PSG while the prospect of goals in this upcoming tussle do not look very promising as no fewer than seven of AC Milan's last 10 matches in all competitions have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.
In addition, AC Milan have failed to win any of their last six Champions League ties which consist of three draws and three defeats while five of these six ties have also produced two goals or less. PSG sit top of the Group F table at the midway point of the group stage with six points under their belts thanks to wins against Borussia Dortmund 2-0 and a comprehensive 3-0 victory over their upcoming opponents, AC Milan, with both victories being achieved on home soil in Paris.
However, in between these two wins, the French outfit were dealt a particularly heavy 4-1 defeat away from home at Newcastle United so Luis Enriques side will be fully focused in producing a professional and workmanlike performance in Milan on Tuesday night.
PSG bring winning momentum though into this Matchday 4 encounter having accounted for the likes Rennes, Strasbourg, Brest and Montpellier in the domestic Ligue 1 and the bigger picture shows PSG have been handed just two defeats out of their last 15 matches in all competitions, so the visitors look capable of at least avoiding defeat here at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Results away from home on the Champions League stage though have left plenty of room for improvement for PSG as they have collected just two wins from their previous 10 outings on the road, so the visitors are by no means guaranteed a result here on Tuesday night.
AC Milan v PSG Verdict
Although PSG recorded a 3-0 home win over AC Milan in their last meeting, previous exchanges have tended to produce low-scoring affairs as three of the last four meetings have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.
Therefore, our main bet will be Under 2.5 goals @ 2.07
Other side bets worth considering:
Draw @ 3.40
Correct Score: 1-1 @ 6.50
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| H | Udinese | 0-1 |
| A | Napoli | 2-2 |
| A | PSG | 3-0 |
| H | Juventus | 0-1 |
| A | Genoa | 0-1 |
| H | Montpellier | 3-0 |
| A | Brestois | 2-3 |
| H | AC Milan | 3-0 |
| H | Strasbourg | 3-0 |
| A | Rennes | 1-3 |