Serie A, played Saturday, July 1st, 2023
Here is our Bahia v Gremio tip and game preview. Based on our detailed analysis of statistics listed below and other factors, we predicted both teams to score in this game, over 2.5 goals, and a tie. Our confidence in this pick was low relative to other picks.
Bahia slipped to another defeat in the Brazilian top flight last weekend when they were handed a 2-1 loss away from home at Fluminense which became a fourth loss in eight matches and the hosts will be keen to halt their recent slump when they play host to Gremio on Saturday evening - but it won't be an easy task by any means.
Bahia have managed to register just one win from their last eight matches overall in Serie A which came in the form of a 1-0 home win against fourth-placed Palmeiras so the hosts will be hoping they can replicate that excellent result when high-flying Gremio come to town.
However, four defeats within this eight-game period to Santos, Flamengo, Internacional and Fluminense along with three draws suggest delving into the straight win markets here would be a bad step, but goals have certainly featured and look a promising proposition in this clash.
Four of Bahia's six games on home soil at their Arena Fonte Nova have resulted in Over 2.5 goals.
Gremio sit in second place in the Serie A standings but they trail the league leaders, Botafogo, by a seven-point margin ahead of this weekend's action in the Brazilian top flight but the visitors have won their last two league matches in comprehensive fashion.
Back-to-back home wins against America Mineiro and Coritiba in 3-1 and 5-1 victories will certainly see Gremio in confident mood as they take to the field against hosts, Bahia, and having won five of their last seven matches overall, Gremio look a tough team to stop right now.
Earlier wins against Internacional 3-1, Athletico PR 2-1 and Sao Paulo 2-1 have not only maintained Gremio's push for Copa Libertadores football next season but each of these five wins overall have also produced three goals or more, so the prospect of further goals on Saturday evening at the Arena Fonte Nova look highly likely.
In addition, four of Gremio's five away games to date in Serie A have also resulted in Over 2.5 goals which bodes well for this upcoming trip to face Bahia.
Bahia v Gremio Verdict
Bahia's poor run of results has landed them down into the lower half of the Serie A table where they occupy 14th place and having managed just one win in eight games, the momentum looks to be on the side of Gremio.
However, the previous two meetings between Bahia and Gremio have ended in stalemates and with goals looking highly likely for this encounter, the Over 2.5 goals option looks a solid one.
Therefore, our main bet will be Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00
Other side bets worth considering:
Draw @ 3.30
Correct score: 2-2 @ 15.00
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| A | Fluminense | 2-1 |
| H | Palmeiras | 1-0 |
| H | Cruzeiro | 2-2 |
| A | Fortaleza CE | 0-0 |
| A | Internacional | 2-0 |
| H | Coritiba | 5-1 |
| H | America Mineiro | 3-1 |
| A | Flamengo | 3-0 |
| H | Sao Paulo | 2-1 |
| A | Atletico Paranaense | 1-2 |