When Is A Bet Good Value?
Sometimes a game might look like a sure-fire bet, so you think you might just put £20 on it. Although 9 times out of 10 you might win, that 1 time you lose you'll lose £20! You've got to weigh up whether it's really worth betting on a game like this. Always consider that if you bet on a game multiple times, would you end up winning? Let's look at some examples :
Spotting Value Example 1
Man United are playing at home to Wolves and are 1/8 to win. If you put £10 on Man Utd you'll win only £11.25. That's £1.25 profit. If this game were played 10 times you would stake £100. If Man Utd happened to win all 10 you would win £112.50, £12.50 profit (12.5%). If Man Utd happened to slip up only once, and draw to a late equaliser, you would only return 9 x £11.25 = £101.25. Is it really worth betting on Man Utd? You might get lucky and win some cash on a one off, but betting on this type of game week in, week out, only takes one loss to wipe out your profits, or put you into negative territory.
Spotting Value Example 2
Spurs are playing a tough game away at Middlesbrough. The bookies are quoting Spurs at 4/5 on an away game because they've been on a recent streak of good form. Considering some teams don't have a great away record, and other teams have a very good home record, is it really worth betting on a team to win away at 4/5? Would Spurs win this game 2 out of 3 times? If they did you would just break even with a small profit (£1 on Spurs would return £1.80 each time Spurs win at 4/5). £3 on Spurs over 3 games at 4/5 would give you £3.60 for 2 wins out of 3. A team that wins 3 times in a row away from home is going at a good rate! Consider this when seeing short odds away from home.
Spotting Value Example 3
Leeds are playing at home to Charlton. You think the game is going to be pretty one-sided in favour of Leeds, so think they'll win. Leeds' odds to win are 1/3, too short for a single bet. So, look for the value. Looking at the game's first scorer odds, Ian Harte is 12/1 to score the first goal. Considering he takes the penalties and free-kicks for Leeds, this looks good value if you think Leeds are hot favourites for the game and are likely to score first. Put a speculative 50p at 12/1, and you'll return £6. Always bear in mind how one-sided a game might be to increase your chances of the team your first scorer plays for scoring the first goal, and try pick some value in a defender/midfielder who gets a few goals a season from penalties or free kicks.
Spotting Value Examples
